Betting Turnover in UK Racing: A 19% Drop That Keeps Getting Worse

The betting turnover decline in UK racing is not a blip. Average turnover per race has fallen roughly 8% year-on-year in 2024/25 compared with 2023/24, approximately 15% compared with 2022/23, and 19% compared with 2021/22, according to the HBLB annual report. Less money is being bet on British horse racing, and the decline has been sustained over four consecutive years. For anyone who bets on the sport — or who cares about the quality of racing that betting funds — this trend demands attention.

The paradox is that bookmaker profits from racing have risen simultaneously. The levy income collected on those profits hit a record £108.9 million in 2024/25. More profit from less turnover means wider margins — bookmakers keeping a larger slice of every pound wagered. For punters, that translates into marginally worse odds across the board. The sport’s economics are shifting beneath your feet, and pretending otherwise is not a strategy.

Affordability Checks: Intended and Unintended Effects

The single most-cited cause of the turnover decline within the racing industry is the Gambling Commission’s introduction of enhanced financial risk checks — commonly referred to as affordability checks — in the wake of the 2023 Gambling Act white paper. These checks require licensed operators to assess whether a customer can afford their level of gambling activity, using credit reference agency data and other financial indicators.

BHA Director of Racing Richard Wayman identified the checks as the primary driver, stating: “The disappointing headline is that total betting turnover on British racing has fallen by 6.8% compared with last year, and 16.5% compared with two years ago.” He added that there was “no doubt” the decline was “headed by the impact of affordability checks and the extent to which they have resulted in people either stopping betting or placing their bets with unlicensed operators.”

The Gambling Commission has pushed back on this characterisation, arguing that multiple factors contribute to the decline and that the checks are a necessary consumer protection measure. The Commission published pilot data showing that 95% of checks were conducted frictionlessly by credit reference agencies without customer awareness. The industry’s response is that the remaining 5% disproportionately includes the highest-staking customers — the ones whose reduced activity has the most material impact on total turnover.

The truth almost certainly sits somewhere in between. Affordability checks are a real contributor, but so are changing consumer habits (younger demographics betting less on racing and more on football), the rising cost of living reducing discretionary spending, and the growing attractiveness of in-play football betting relative to horse racing as an entertainment product. Attributing the entire decline to a single regulatory intervention oversimplifies a complex picture.

Black-Market Growth: 522% Rise in Unlicensed Traffic

The most alarming statistic in the turnover story is not about licensed betting at all. The International Federation of Horseracing Authorities reported a 522% increase in unique UK visitors to 22 unlicensed betting sites between August 2021 and September 2024. Over the same period, traffic to 10 licensed platforms grew by just 49%. The IFHA cautioned that the 22 sites studied do not represent the full extent of the unlicensed market, meaning the true scale of migration is likely larger.

Unlicensed operators do not contribute to the Horserace Betting Levy. They do not fund prize money. They do not conduct financial vulnerability checks. They do not participate in self-exclusion schemes. Every pound wagered with an unlicensed bookmaker is a pound that does not flow back into the racing ecosystem — and the cumulative effect, if the trend continues, threatens the financial model that underpins the entire sport.

A 2023 BHA survey found that 10% of racing bettors were already engaging with the black market. Frontier Economics estimated that £4.3 billion was being staked annually with unlicensed operators in Britain across all sports, though the racing-specific share of that figure is not publicly broken out. Regardless of the exact number, the direction is clear: a meaningful and growing volume of racing betting is moving outside the regulated system.

Impact on Prize Money and Race Quality

The link between betting turnover and prize money runs through the levy. If turnover continues to fall and bookmaker margins eventually normalise, levy income will plateau or decline — and with it the HBLB’s ability to fund prize money at current record levels. The Board has already acknowledged this risk by increasing its target reserves range to £25-35 million, building a buffer against a potential income shortfall.

The downstream effects would be felt most keenly at lower-class venues. A reduction in HBLB ratecard funding would squeeze prize money at Class 5 and Class 6 level — precisely the races that make up the bulk of the programme at Southwell, Wolverhampton and other all-weather workhorses. Lower prize money means fewer entries, smaller fields, less competitive racing and thinner betting markets. The sport has seen this cycle before during the pandemic years, when prize money was temporarily cut and the quality of lower-grade racing visibly declined.

For bettors, declining field sizes are the most directly felt consequence. Smaller fields reduce each-way value, compress the form book and favour market leaders — making the sport simultaneously less interesting to bet on and less rewarding when you get it right. The BHA reports that average field sizes at Core flat fixtures fell to 8.65 in 2025, down from 8.93 the year before. If that number drops to seven or below, the character of the racing programme changes fundamentally.

What Punters Should Watch For

The turnover decline is not something individual bettors can reverse. It is a structural shift driven by regulation, competition and demographics. But there are practical steps you can take to adapt.

First, expect thinner markets at Core fixtures — the venues where Southwell operates. Thinner markets mean more price volatility, slower market formation and wider spreads between bookmakers. This is both a risk and an opportunity: prices are less efficient, which creates more value plays, but they also move more sharply when money arrives, which makes timing your bets more important.

Second, monitor field size trends at the venues you bet on regularly. If average field sizes at Southwell start falling consistently below eight runners on the flat, adjust your approach — reduce each-way activity, increase selectivity and focus on races where the form is deepest. Field size is the canary in the coal mine for race quality, and it is a number you can track in near-real-time from meeting to meeting.

Third, stay with licensed operators. The attractions of the unregulated market — no checks, no limits, no friction — are real in the short term and dangerous in the long term. Licensed operators fund the sport you bet on. Unlicensed ones do not. If the black market continues to grow at anything close to its current rate, the product it is parasitising will eventually deteriorate — and that hurts everyone, including the bettors who thought they were getting a better deal.

The turnover numbers are not comfortable reading. But they are the reality within which every racing bettor now operates, and understanding them is the first step towards making smarter decisions in a tightening market.